Prices · Million-dollar flats

How can million-dollar HDB flats set a record while resale prices fall?

Both figures are true. A million dollars is a fixed line in a market that has moved past it: it was the 99.8th percentile of HDB resale prices in 2017 and is the 92nd today. A count above a static threshold is a statistic about the top of the distribution, and the top kept moving while the middle stopped. Index the line to the market and the record disappears: 7.9 per cent of sales cleared the equivalent line in 2026 against 11.1 per cent in 2017.

The two figures, side by side

Over the 12 months to Oct 2026 there were 2,055 million-dollar resale sales, against 1,528 in the 12 months before — a rise of 34 per cent. Over the same two windows the median resale price went from $625,000 to $630,000 and the median price per square foot from $599 psf to $602 psf — which is no change at all.

The Housing Board’s own Resale Price Index agrees with the second half of that and is blunter about it: it peaked at 203.7 in Q3 2025 and stood at 202.5 in Q3 2026, the latest quarter published — four consecutive quarterly falls, and 0.6 per cent below the peak. That index is mix-adjusted, which ours is not, and it is the figure behind a headline that says resale prices have declined. So the premise of the question is correct. The conclusion drawn from it is not.

Reason one: the line does not move

In 2017 a million dollars was 2.4 times the median flat, which sold for $410,000, and only 46 of the year’s 20,509 sales reached it. The median flat now costs $635,000, so the same million is 1.6 times the median, and 1,705 sales have reached it this year. Nothing about the threshold changed; the market walked up to it.

That is what makes the count so lively. The mark now sits at the 92nd percentile, which is the steep part of the distribution: thousands of sales are clustered just below it, so a small rise at the top of the market pushes a large number of them across. A median, sitting in the flattest part of the same distribution, barely moves at all.

* 2026 covers the months published so far. The last column is the share of that year’s sales that fell below a million dollars.

Reason two: move the line with the market and the record vanishes

There is a way to ask whether a million-dollar flat is genuinely rarer than it used to be, and it needs no inflation series: move the threshold so that it stands in the same relation to the median flat in every year. In 2017 that line would have been $645,669, and 2,276 sales cleared it — 11.1 per cent of the market. In 2026 the line is the million itself, and 1,705 sales have cleared it, 7.9 per cent of the market.

So relative to its own market, the dear end of HDB resale is no rarer and no commoner than it was — if anything the share has fallen. The record is a record in dollars, and dollars are the thing that changed.

Reason three: the top of the market moved and the middle did not

Quarter by quarter, indexed to Q4 2024 so that all three can share one scale: the median rose to 103.7, the ninetieth percentile to 107.4, and the ninety-ninth to 113.4. The dear end of the market has outrun the middle by 9.7 points in eight quarters, and the million-dollar count is a measure of the dear end.

The smaller figure under each sum is that column indexed to Q4 2024 = 100. The quarter in progress is left out, because a part-quarter count is not comparable with a whole one.

Million-dollar sales, quarter by quarter

Complete quarters only, in order rather than ranked. Counts, not rates — the share beside each is the rate, and it matters because quarterly volume swings by a third.

Reason four: a count is not a rate, and these are not ordinary flats

2,055 sales is 7.7 per cent of the market. And the flats behind it differ from the market in more than price: by flat type, 7.6 per cent of 4-room sales, 11.7 per cent of 5-room sales, 25.4 per cent of executive sales cleared the mark. By town it is narrower still: Toa Payoh alone accounts for 326 of them, 30 per cent of everything that sold there.

Note what the last column does not say. Across the three types with 20 or more such sales, a flat clearing the mark is within 2 per cent of the typical size for its own type. The million-dollar group is bigger than the market overall only because it is drawn from the bigger types — size enters through the mix, which is the same trap as every other comparison on this site. The 3-room row is the exception and it rests on five sales, so it is an anecdote rather than a pattern.

Where they are

Towns with at least one million-dollar sale in the 12 months to Oct 2026, commonest first. The share is of that town’s own sales.

The streets where it happens

The 20 streets with the most million-dollar sales in the window.

• Bidadari Park Drive · 132 sales · 72% of its sales
• Dawson Road · 119 sales · 53% of its sales
• Ang Mo Kio Street 23 · 59 sales · 76% of its sales
• Cantonment Road · 56 sales · 100% of its sales
• Clementi Avenue 3 · 56 sales · 55% of its sales
• Alkaff Crescent · 54 sales · 53% of its sales
• Ghim Moh Link · 50 sales · 63% of its sales
• Boon Tiong Road · 42 sales · 86% of its sales
• Bedok South Road · 41 sales · 34% of its sales
• Lorong 1A Toa Payoh · 41 sales · 100% of its sales
• Saint George's Lane · 40 sales · 63% of its sales
• Bishan Street 24 · 32 sales · 59% of its sales
• Redhill Road · 32 sales · 94% of its sales
• Clementi Avenue 4 · 30 sales · 25% of its sales
• Jalan Membina · 29 sales · 40% of its sales
• Boon Keng Road · 29 sales · 64% of its sales
• McNair Road · 29 sales · 39% of its sales
• Circuit Road · 28 sales · 15% of its sales
• Toh Yi Drive · 26 sales · 62% of its sales
• Upper Boon Keng Road · 26 sales · 35% of its sales

The dearest HDB flats in the register

The highest resale prices in the register since Jan 2017.

Month by month

The most recent 36 months, newest first. The current month is marked, because it holds only the sales registered so far.

Latest complete month: Sept 2026, with 208 sales at or above a million dollars out of 2,242.

Questions

How many HDB flats have sold for a million dollars?

2,055 in the 12 months to Oct 2026, which is 7.7 per cent of all resale sales. The best complete month on record is Sept 2026, with 208.

How can million-dollar sales set a record while resale prices fall?

Both figures are true. A million dollars is a fixed line in a market that has moved past it: it was the 99.8th percentile of HDB resale prices in 2017 and is the 92nd today. A count above a static threshold is a statistic about the top of the distribution, and the top kept moving while the middle stopped. Index the line to the market and the record disappears: 7.9 per cent of sales cleared the equivalent line in 2026 against 11.1 per cent in 2017.

Are million-dollar flats getting more common relative to the market?

No. Holding the threshold at the same position relative to the median flat, 11.1 per cent of 2017 sales cleared it against 7.9 per cent in 2026. A million-dollar flat is a rising nominal sum, not a rising share of an unchanged market.

Which towns have the most million-dollar HDB flats?

Toa Payoh (326), Queenstown (276), Bukit Merah (245), over the 12 months to Oct 2026. They are concentrated by flat type as well: 7.6 per cent of 4-room sales, 11.7 per cent of 5-room sales, 25.4 per cent of executive sales.

How this was worked out

Every figure comes from the Housing Board’s resale transaction register on data.gov.sg, 243,611 sales from Jan 2017 to Oct 2026, retrieved Oct 2026. A sale counts as million-dollar at $1,000,000 or above. Medians are medians, never means, and every one carries the number of sales behind it. The market-indexed threshold is $1,000,000 scaled by each year’s median sale over the latest year’s, so it asks the same question of every year. The Resale Price Index figures are the Housing Board’s own, published quarterly and mix-adjusted, which our transaction medians are not. The full method.